Market Commentary

Updated on May 20, 2024 10:05:14 AM EDT

Today's only events that we are watching are a couple of Fed speeches. In this morning's early speech in Fernandina Beach FL, Michael Barr stated via prepared remarks that he was disappointed in inflation results so far this year. He went on to say that the data has failed to give him the confidence it was time to start lowering key short-term interest rates and that more time is needed to allow their past rate hikes to do their job. This gives a clear message that this FOMC member won't be voting for a rate cut anytime soon.

There is another speech later this morning by Fed Vice Philip Jefferson with a topic of U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics. This one could draw a response in the markets, possibly leading to bond movement and another small change to mortgage rates late morning or around lunchtime.

Tomorrow also lacks any relevant economic releases. The rest of the week brings us only four monthly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to a potentially relevant Treasury auction and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. None of the reports are considered to be key to the markets, although one is considered to be of higher importance than many other monthly releases. They begin Wednesday morning.

Overall, while no single day clearly stands out as more important for rates than any other, we could see the biggest change Friday morning. The best candidate for calmest day is Thursday. We should see far less movement in rates this week than during the past couple of weeks, but the markets can get active without notice. Therefore, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

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