Yesterday's 5-year Treasury Note auction didn't go overly strong but by the reaction that followed the results announcement it would be easy to think it did. The benchmarks showed an average demand for the securities compared to other recent sales. The indicators from this particular sale don't really justify the afternoon bond rally that followed, but it did correlate with the 1:00 PM ET results announcement. Hopefully, we will get a similar reaction to today's 7-year Note auction. Results of it will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for rates.
This morning's sole relevant economic release was November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a reading of 102.0, higher than the 100.0 that was expected. They also said that October's 102.6 was revised down to 99.1, meaning consumers did not feel as good about their own financial situations than previously thought. The downward revision is technically good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into weaker consumer spending numbers. However, the revision also means that surveyed consumers felt much better this month than they did last month. The more recent snapshot is going to cause us to label the report as bad news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow has a morning and afternoon event that we will be watching. First is the initial revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. Last month's preliminary estimate of a 4.9% annual rate of growth is expected to be left unchanged. The GDP measures the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S., making it the most reliable measurement of economic growth. Good news for rates would be a downward revision, meaning the economy was not as strong as previously thought. However, this data is somewhat aged at this point covering the July, August and September months. That means it will take a large revision to cause a noticeable move in rates.
The GDP update will be followed by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book release at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover but details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region via their business contacts. Since the Fed uses this info during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any surprises. Of particular interest is information regarding inflation, employment or consumer demand. If there is a reaction to the report, it will come during mid-afternoon trading.
©Mortgage Commentary 2023