Market Commentary

Updated on October 25, 2021 10:03:23 AM EDT

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today, the only day of the week without something relevant to mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us seven monthly and quarterly economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that have the potential to do so also.

October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start this week's activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board index helps us gauge consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a small decline from last month's 109.3 reading. That would mean surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations as they were last month. Good news for the bond market would be a noticeable decline because waning confidence usually translates to weaker consumer spending levels, which makes up over two-thirds of our economy. Current forecasts are showing a reading of 109.0. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

September's New Home Sales data will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Commerce Department report covers the small percentage of home sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report didn't include. Forecasts show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, but I don't see this report having much of an impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

Overall, Thursday is a good candidate for most important day for rates due to the initial GDP reading, but several days may see noticeable movement. The calmest day could end up being tomorrow. We should see rates move quite a bit this week with intraday revisions multiple days. If still floating an interest rate, and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets.

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