We have two events scheduled today that may have an impact on mortgage rates. First up is an 11:00 AM ET speaking appearance by Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The topic of this conversation is listed as Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, meaning it has a little more possibility of affecting the markets than many of the other Fed speeches. If there is a reaction to what she says, it likely will come during lunchtime trading. Whether or not this event becomes relevant to rates depends on what is said. It may be a non-factor or cause a strong reaction in the markets.
There also is a 20-year Treasury Bond auction taking place today. If the 1:00 PM ET results announcement indicates there was a strong demand for the securities, particularly from international investors, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve slightly before the end of the day. On the other hand, a lackluster demand could pressure the bond market and lead to an upward move in rates during afternoon trading.
Tomorrow has three moderately important economic reports scheduled for release. We will get last week's unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 220,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made, up from the previous week's 217,000. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Therefore, the larger the number the better the news for mortgage pricing.
October's Existing Home Sales report will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors is expected to announce an increase in home resales, meaning the housing sector improved slightly last month. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage pricing because a stronger housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. But unless it shows a significant surprise, this data will likely not have a major impact on rates.
The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, will release their Leading Economic Indicators for October late morning. These indicators attempt to predict economic activity over the next few months and are considered to be moderately important. Forecasts show a 0.4% decline, meaning the indicators are pointing to weaker economic growth this winter. A larger decline would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
©Mortgage Commentary 2024